The artificial intelligence boom has produced a recognisable cast of investment beneficiaries. Nvidia for the GPU. Microsoft, Amazon, and Google for the cloud. Utilities for the power surge. These narratives are well-established, widely owned, and fully priced. What the market has been slower to absorb is the vast mid-layer of the data center supply chain - the companies building the physical and digital infrastructure that makes AI compute actually possible. Data centers are central to AI's physical infrastructure, with 25.6% annual growth projected through 2034, and capital spending on data center construction is expected to exceed investment in traditional office buildings in 2025 for the first time in history. Three stocks - evaluated on a quantitative basis across momentum, valuation, earnings revisions, profitability, and analyst sentiment - stand out as particularly well-positioned for what comes next: Applied Digital (APLD), Pure Storage (PSTG), and Johnson Controls (JCI).
The Scale of the AI Data Center Build-Out in 2025
The numbers surrounding AI data center investment have become difficult to contextualise because they move so quickly. At the start of 2025, analysts were forecasting approximately $280 billion in hyperscaler capital expenditure for the year. By Q3 2025, that estimate had been revised above $405 billion - a figure representing 62% year-on-year growth and nearly triple what was spent in 2023. Amazon alone raised its full-year 2025 capex guidance to $125 billion, up 51% from 2024, representing more than 88% of its projected operating cash flow. Microsoft spent $34.9 billion in Q3 2025 alone - an increase of 75% from the same quarter the prior year. Google lifted its full-year forecast by $10 billion to approximately $85 billion. Meta, which spent $65 billion in 2025, has flagged that annual capex could approach $100 billion by 2026.
2025 Estimated AI & Data Center CapEx - Major Hyperscalers
Sources: Company earnings guidance and analyst synthesis (CreditSights, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs). Figures represent full-year 2025 capital expenditure estimates as of Q3 2025. Not all capex is data centre-specific - approximately 75% of aggregate hyperscaler spend is tied directly to AI infrastructure.
Goldman Sachs forecasts that global data center power demand will grow 175% between 2023 and 2030 - the equivalent of adding another top-10 power-consuming country to global electricity grids. That projection drives an estimated $1.15 trillion in hyperscaler capex between 2025 and 2027 alone - more than double the $477 billion spent across 2022 through 2024. The Dell'Oro Group, an independent market research firm, projects worldwide data center capex will reach $1.2 trillion cumulatively by 2029. In Q2 2025, worldwide data center capex already grew 43% year-on-year, with accelerated server spending rising 76% driven by the NVIDIA Blackwell platform ramp.
AI Rack Power Density - How Compute Demands Have Changed
AI rack power density has grown 8–24x vs. traditional server racks. This drives demand for advanced cooling, high-capacity power distribution, and sophisticated thermal management - the core markets for Vertiv, Eaton, and JCI.
The Data Center Supply Chain: Where Value Is Created
The data center investment cycle creates value across multiple distinct layers of a supply chain. Each layer has different risk characteristics, valuation dynamics, and competitive moats. Understanding which layer a company occupies is the first step in assessing its investment merit.
Hyperscalers (Demand Drivers)
- Amazon AWS
- Microsoft Azure
- Google Cloud
- Meta AI Infrastructure
The buyers. They commission data centers, lease capacity, and direct the entire supply chain. Most investors already own them through broad tech indices.
Chips & Compute (Most Owned)
- Nvidia (GPUs)
- AMD (GPUs, CPUs)
- Broadcom (ASICs, networking)
- TSMC (fabrication)
The most widely followed AI infrastructure stocks. Nvidia trades at premium valuations reflecting years of expected growth already priced in.
Power & Cooling (Rapidly Growing)
- Vertiv (VRT)
- Eaton (ETN)
- nVent Electric (NVT)
- Johnson Controls (JCI) ★
Supplies UPS systems, PDUs, liquid cooling, thermal management - components every data center must have regardless of which GPU generation is deployed.
Data Center REITs (Income Layer)
- Equinix (EQIX)
- Digital Realty (DLR)
- Iron Mountain (IRM)
- Applied Digital (APLD) ★
Landlords that build, own, and operate physical data center facilities - earning recurring lease revenue from hyperscalers and co-location tenants.
Storage & Memory (Often Overlooked)
- Micron Technology (MU)
- Western Digital (WDC)
- Seagate (STX)
- Pure Storage (PSTG) ★
Provides the high-performance flash and memory that feeds AI training clusters - a foundational input that cannot be de-bottlenecked without correct storage infrastructure.
3 Quantitatively Strong Data Center Stocks - The Overlooked Plays
While hyperscalers, chip companies, and major utilities have absorbed the bulk of investor attention and capital since the AI boom began, key upstream subsectors of the data center supply chain remain under-appreciated by the market. Evaluated across momentum, valuation discipline, earnings revision trends, profitability quality, and analyst sentiment, three companies stand out as carrying Quant Strong Buy characteristics as of October 2025 - and all three serve the data center ecosystem in roles that are non-discretionary, recurring, and structurally growing.
Applied Digital Corporation
Applied Digital is a purpose-built AI data center operator - a company that designs, builds, and operates next-generation data center facilities specifically engineered for the power density and cooling requirements of AI compute workloads. This is a critical distinction from traditional co-location providers: Applied Digital's infrastructure is purpose-engineered for AI from the ground up, rather than retrofitted from legacy server farm designs. Its facilities are built to handle the extreme power requirements of NVIDIA Blackwell and similar high-density GPU clusters - rack densities that standard data centers simply cannot support without costly and time-consuming upgrades.
Applied Digital's business model centres on long-term, contracted revenue from hyperscalers and large AI training customers who need dedicated, purpose-built compute infrastructure that they do not want to own outright. The company serves as a capital intermediary - building the expensive physical infrastructure, securing power agreements, and providing the facility management layer, while its customers focus on the compute and software. This capital-asset-heavy model carries execution risk during construction phases but generates high-visibility, recurring revenue once facilities reach operational status.
The company's key competitive advantage is its focus on sourcing power in markets with abundant, low-cost electricity - often in regions with available grid capacity and proximity to renewable energy sources, which is increasingly important as data center operators face environmental scrutiny. Its ability to secure power agreements in underserved geographies, while hyperscalers struggle to find sites in saturated markets like Northern Virginia and Silicon Valley, makes Applied Digital a supplier of a genuinely scarce resource: shovel-ready, high-power, AI-ready data center capacity. Revenue grew substantially year-on-year in fiscal 2025, driven by completed facility ramp-ups and expanding customer commitments.
Pure Storage
Pure Storage is an enterprise flash storage company that has emerged as one of the clearest beneficiaries of the AI training and inference buildout - and it remains one of the most overlooked names in the AI infrastructure conversation. The reason is straightforward: when investors think about what an AI data center requires, they naturally gravitate to GPUs and power infrastructure. Storage is the unglamorous plumbing that enables those GPUs to function. Yet the physics of AI training are unambiguous: a GPU cluster is only as productive as the speed at which data can be fed into it, and bottlenecked storage turns expensive compute into expensive idle compute.
Pure Storage's FlashBlade and FlashArray product lines are designed specifically for the high-throughput, low-latency data access requirements of AI training clusters. Its all-flash architecture delivers data to GPU clusters without the input-output bottlenecks created by traditional hard-disk-drive (HDD) storage - a bottleneck that becomes critical when training runs involve petabytes of data across thousands of GPUs running concurrently. The company has publicly highlighted that AI-related storage demand is already a meaningful driver of its business, with customers deploying Pure Storage arrays specifically to eliminate storage as a bottleneck in AI training pipelines.
What makes Pure Storage particularly compelling quantitatively is its financial profile. The company has demonstrated consistent revenue growth - exceeding 25% year-on-year in recent quarters - combined with improving gross margins as its software subscription layer, Evergreen, grows as a share of total revenue. Evergreen subscriptions generate recurring annual contract value that provides revenue visibility well beyond a single product cycle, and the subscription gross margins are substantially higher than hardware sales. This mix shift toward software is structurally improving the company's earnings quality over time, a factor that quantitative screens capture through rising EPS revision trends and improving profitability scores.
Johnson Controls International
Johnson Controls is a 140-year-old industrial company whose primary business - building automation, HVAC systems, fire and security infrastructure - intersects directly with the data center boom through one critical technology: cooling. As AI rack power density has escalated from 5–15 kilowatts for traditional server racks to 50–120 kilowatts for the latest GPU cluster configurations, thermal management has emerged as a fundamental constraint on data center expansion. A data center that cannot adequately cool its compute is a data center that must throttle its GPUs - or risk hardware failure. Cooling, in this context, is not a background utility cost but a core enabling technology.
Johnson Controls supplies both traditional air-side cooling infrastructure and the advanced liquid cooling systems that AI data centers increasingly require. Liquid cooling - in which coolant is circulated directly past compute components rather than relying on air movement - is the only viable thermal management approach for the highest-density AI racks currently being deployed. JCI's portfolio spans chillers, precision air cooling, fluid dynamics systems, and the building automation software that orchestrates these systems in complex data center environments. Its OpenBlue digital platform provides the analytics and control layer that allows operators to optimise cooling efficiency, predict failures before they occur, and reduce power usage effectiveness (PUE) - a key operational metric for data center sustainability.
What makes Johnson Controls an interesting quantitative pick rather than simply a beneficiary of a long-term trend is its valuation context. Unlike Vertiv - whose stock has risen significantly and now trades at roughly 46 times forward earnings - Johnson Controls arrives at this data center growth story from a lower valuation starting point, with a large installed base of existing maintenance and upgrade contracts providing baseline revenue stability. The company's data center exposure is growing as a percentage of its overall building solutions business, creating a re-rating opportunity as the market recognises an industrial holding company increasingly operating as a critical data center infrastructure provider. Its Q3 2025 results and raised full-year guidance reflected strong order momentum tied specifically to AI-related data center construction projects.
How These Three Compare to the Broader Data Center Universe
| Company | Ticker | Segment | AI Data Center Role | Key Risk | Quant Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Applied Digital | APLD | Purpose-Built DC Operator | Builds & operates AI-ready facilities; long-term leases with hyperscalers | Construction execution; customer concentration | Strong Buy |
| Pure Storage | PSTG | Enterprise Flash Storage | High-throughput storage feeding AI GPU clusters; Evergreen subscription model | Competition from commodity flash; valuation multiple | Strong Buy |
| Johnson Controls | JCI | Building Automation / Cooling | Liquid & air cooling systems; thermal management for high-density AI racks | Non-DC business dilutes pure-play exposure; cyclicality | Strong Buy |
| Vertiv Holdings | VRT | Power & Cooling Infrastructure | UPS, PDUs, thermal management - comprehensive DC power infrastructure | Valuation: ~46x forward earnings; supply chain capacity | Neutral / Hold |
| Eaton Corporation | ETN | Electrical Power Management | 800V DC architecture with NVIDIA; busbar technology; high-density PDUs | Broad industrial exposure; slower data center re-rating vs. VRT | Buy |
| Equinix | EQIX | Colocation REIT | Global interconnection network; 10% EBITDA growth Q3 2025; strong bookings | Premium REIT valuation; limits growth multiple expansion | Neutral |
| Digital Realty | DLR | Hyperscale DC REIT | AI-oriented lease focus; $919M backlog; 300+ data centers globally | Capital-intensive; leverage rising with DC construction expansion | Buy |
The Data Center Investment Acceleration: 2024–2025 Timeline
The Stargate Announcement - $500B AI Infrastructure Commitment
President Trump announced the Stargate Project - a joint venture between SoftBank, OpenAI, and Oracle committing $500 billion in AI infrastructure investment over four years, with an initial $100 billion to be deployed immediately. The announcement set the tone for the scale of AI infrastructure ambition in 2025 and triggered a significant re-rating of data center-adjacent companies.
Hyperscaler CapEx Guidance Revisions Begin Exceeding Analyst Estimates
In a pattern that repeated every quarter, hyperscaler companies announced capital expenditure plans well above analyst forecasts. Total 2025 AI infrastructure spend estimates were repeatedly revised upward - from $250B at year-start to $365B entering Q3, ultimately tracking above $405B. Dell'Oro Group reported 43% global data center capex growth in Q2, with accelerated server spending up 76% driven by the NVIDIA Blackwell platform ramp-up.
Power and Cooling Constraints Become a Market Narrative
As the NVIDIA Blackwell GB200 NVL72 rack - drawing approximately 120 kilowatts - began shipping at scale, the data center industry's power and cooling challenge moved from a theoretical concern to a practical constraint on how quickly hyperscalers could deploy AI compute. Goldman Sachs published research projecting data center power demand would grow 175% between 2023 and 2030, equivalent to adding an entire large country's electricity consumption to global grids. This narrative directly benefited Vertiv, Eaton, Johnson Controls, and cooling specialists.
Data Center Investment Exceeds Traditional Office Buildings
For the first time in history, annual investment in data center construction is projected to exceed investment in traditional office buildings in the United States - a structural shift in how capital is being allocated to the built environment. This milestone, combined with 25.6% annual growth projected through 2034, underscores the durability of the data center investment cycle as an investment theme, not a short-term trade.
What to Watch: Risk Factors and Investment Framework
The data center investment thesis is structurally compelling, but it is not without risk. The primary concern that has periodically rattled this sector - exemplified by the January 2025 DeepSeek-driven sell-off that wiped approximately $1 trillion from global equity markets in a single session - is that more efficient AI models could reduce the compute intensity required to deliver equivalent AI output, thereby reducing demand for AI hardware and, by extension, the infrastructure that houses it. This risk is real but overstated as a structural threat: even if individual AI models require less compute per inference, the breadth and scale of AI application deployment is expanding rapidly enough that aggregate data center demand continues to grow even with improved efficiency.
Investor Framework: How to Evaluate Data Center Infrastructure Companies
- Recurring vs. transactional revenue: Companies with subscription, maintenance, or long-term lease revenue (Pure Storage's Evergreen subscriptions, Applied Digital's contracted facility leases, JCI's service contracts) offer superior earnings visibility compared to companies dependent on one-time equipment sales cycles
- Power access as a competitive moat: In 2025, the binding constraint on data center expansion is not capital or GPUs - it is access to power. Companies that have secured long-term power agreements or have established relationships with utilities in power-surplus markets are structurally advantaged. Applied Digital's strategic focus on this moat is its most durable competitive advantage
- Valuation relative to growth: Vertiv's well-deserved premium (~46x forward earnings) leaves less room for upside surprise. Applied Digital, Pure Storage, and Johnson Controls offer quantitatively better risk-reward profiles at their respective valuations relative to their data center growth exposure, which is why they score higher on quantitative factor frameworks
- The cooling and power delivery bottleneck: Every GPU must be cooled and powered. This demand is non-discretionary and scales directly with the number of GPUs deployed - making power infrastructure and thermal management companies structurally benefiting from the entire AI compute buildout rather than from any single technology or product cycle
- Debt financing risk at the hyperscaler level: Meta and Oracle issued $75 billion in bonds and loans in September–October 2025 alone to fund AI data center construction. The scale of AI infrastructure debt financing is significant and introduces macro credit risk - if credit conditions tighten materially, capex plans could be revised downward faster than current consensus expects
- Geographic diversification of data center construction: Data center construction is increasingly spreading beyond traditional hubs (Northern Virginia, Silicon Valley, Dublin) toward Sunbelt states, Midwest locations, and international sovereign AI projects - this broadens the addressable market for US-based data center infrastructure companies
Key Takeaways
- Hyperscalers are tracking above $405 billion in AI infrastructure capital expenditure in 2025 - up 62% year-on-year and nearly triple 2023 levels - with Amazon alone guiding to $125 billion for the full year
- Data center investment is projected to exceed traditional office building investment in the US in 2025 for the first time, with 25.6% annual growth forecast through 2034 and global data center capex projected to reach $1.2 trillion by 2029
- While chip stocks and utilities have absorbed the bulk of investor attention, key upstream data center subsectors - purpose-built facility operators, enterprise flash storage, and building automation / cooling infrastructure - remain quantitatively attractive and under-represented in most AI investment portfolios
- Applied Digital (APLD) is a purpose-built AI data center operator whose competitive moat is access to power in underserved geographies and facilities purpose-engineered for extreme GPU rack density - qualities that cannot be quickly replicated by traditional colocation providers or hyperscalers building their own capacity
- Pure Storage (PSTG) addresses the frequently overlooked storage bottleneck in AI training: GPU clusters are only as productive as the speed at which data can be fed into them, and Pure Storage's FlashBlade arrays are specifically designed to eliminate storage as the constraint in large-scale AI training runs
- Johnson Controls (JCI) brings 140 years of building infrastructure expertise to the data center cooling crisis - a crisis created by AI rack power density escalating from 5–15 kW (traditional) to 50–120 kW (Blackwell-era AI) - and arrives at this growth story at a more attractive valuation than pure-play cooling peers like Vertiv
- Goldman Sachs projects global data center power demand will grow 175% between 2023 and 2030 - the equivalent of adding a top-10 power-consuming nation to global electricity grids - making power delivery and thermal management non-discretionary growth markets for the remainder of this decade
- The primary risk to the data center thesis is AI model efficiency improvement (exemplified by DeepSeek's January 2025 shock) reducing per-model compute requirements - however, expanding AI application breadth has historically absorbed these efficiency gains rather than reducing aggregate demand
- Recurring revenue models (subscriptions, maintenance contracts, long-term leases) are the key differentiator between high-quality and lower-quality data center infrastructure investments - companies with contracted, recurring revenue streams offer superior earnings visibility during capex cycle inflections
- The data center infrastructure buildout is structurally recurring, not a one-time boom: each new AI architecture generation (Blackwell, then the inevitable successor) requires re-architecting power, cooling, networking, and memory bandwidth - making infrastructure investment a durable multi-year theme rather than a trade timed to a single chip cycle
Sources: Dell'Oro Group Data Center IT Capex Quarterly Report (Q2 2025); Goldman Sachs Research - "Data Center Power Demand: The 6 Ps Driving Growth" (October 2025); CreditSights Technology Hyperscaler CapEx Analysis (2025); Company earnings guidance - Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta (Q3 2025).
PolyMarket Investment, Research Team, October 22, 2025